Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 9.387028e-05 0.000112 0.000131 0.000153 0.000177 0.000203 0.000232
2024-10-20 6.898461e-05 0.000092 0.000118 0.000149 0.000185 0.000225 0.000272
2024-10-27 5.692817e-05 0.000082 0.000112 0.000150 0.000194 0.000244 0.000305
2024-11-03 4.338213e-05 0.000069 0.000101 0.000143 0.000194 0.000254 0.000327
2024-11-10 3.709509e-05 0.000064 0.000098 0.000144 0.000202 0.000271 0.000357
2024-11-17 2.945050e-05 0.000056 0.000091 0.000141 0.000204 0.000281 0.000378
2024-11-24 2.511778e-05 0.000051 0.000089 0.000141 0.000211 0.000296 0.000405
2024-12-01 2.081928e-05 0.000047 0.000085 0.000141 0.000215 0.000308 0.000429
2024-12-08 1.632337e-05 0.000041 0.000079 0.000136 0.000214 0.000313 0.000443
2024-12-15 1.295890e-05 0.000036 0.000074 0.000133 0.000216 0.000321 0.000461
2024-12-22 1.041224e-05 0.000033 0.000071 0.000131 0.000218 0.000329 0.000479
2024-12-29 8.880450e-06 0.000031 0.000070 0.000133 0.000225 0.000344 0.000506
2025-01-05 6.745691e-06 0.000027 0.000067 0.000133 0.000230 0.000359 0.000534
2025-01-12 4.463859e-06 0.000023 0.000061 0.000128 0.000229 0.000365 0.000553
2025-01-19 3.393307e-06 0.000021 0.000060 0.000129 0.000237 0.000383 0.000585
2025-01-26 1.887067e-06 0.000017 0.000053 0.000123 0.000232 0.000383 0.000596
2025-02-02 1.378114e-06 0.000015 0.000053 0.000125 0.000240 0.000401 0.000630
2025-02-09 7.134212e-07 0.000013 0.000048 0.000121 0.000239 0.000407 0.000646
2025-02-16 4.423248e-07 0.000012 0.000047 0.000122 0.000245 0.000423 0.000677
2025-02-23 2.106216e-07 0.000010 0.000045 0.000121 0.000249 0.000434 0.000701
2025-03-02 5.369990e-08 0.000008 0.000041 0.000117 0.000247 0.000438 0.000716
2025-03-09 5.069379e-09 0.000007 0.000039 0.000114 0.000247 0.000444 0.000734
2025-03-16 NaN 0.000006 0.000037 0.000113 0.000249 0.000453 0.000756